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Throughout the 2016 campaign for the US presidency, Viktor Orbán emerged as the exclusive European Union leader to support Donald Trump. This backing was expected, in light of Mr Orbán's adoption of controversial theories such as the "great replacement" theory and his restrictions against press independence. Analysts have noted that Hungary's premier essentially pioneered the Maga movement, with former White House strategist Steve Bannon hailing him as the "Trump before Trump".

Campaign Assistance Before Hungarian Elections

In recent days, with key votes in Hungary merely approaching in six months, the US president reciprocated with support. As Mr Orbán seeks a fifth consecutive term presiding over a nation he labels an illiberal state, his Fidesz party lags in the polls. An official trip to the US capital yielded not just a few signed Maga baseball caps; it obtained highly beneficial electoral advantages.

Special Treatment and Fiscal Safeguards

Even though before instructing EU countries on the need to stop all fuel purchases from the Russian Federation, and warning of penalties against nations persisting to import Russian energy, the US president agreed to provide a special exemption for Hungary – the biggest user in the EU of Russian petroleum. According to Mr Orbán, the US government also promised to offer a fiscal buffer to Hungary's capital should it faces any future difficulties, given that EU institutions is still blocking billions in EU funding to Hungary because of rule-of-law breaches.

The details of this agreement seem vague. But Donald Trump illustrated his inclination to support like-minded partners after the America provided a $20bn emergency credit line to Javier Milei, Argentina's president. Although Mr Orbán failed to obtain a Trump trip to Budapest to the Hungarian capital, the Washington talks nevertheless turned out to be a productive session.

Brussels' Worries and Geopolitical Stakes

In the corridors of the EU, Mr Trump’s intervention likely emphasized the strategic importance of the forthcoming polls, ahead of which the opposition candidate, Péter Magyar, enjoys a clear edge in the polls. EU chiefs have learned not to expect reliable policies from the Trump White House, and are familiar with the US president’s attempts to undermine the EU. Yet the special treatment for Orbán – obtained in exchange for an deal to acquire American natural gas and nuclear power – flagrantly undermines EU aspirations to phase out Russian oil and gas by the target date.

• From 2022 onward, the largest EU buyers of Russian petroleum, the Hungarian and Slovak nations, have contributed more than ten billion pounds to the Moscow's war operations.
• At the same time, Hungary has often employed the veto power to hinder advancement in Ukraine’s EU accession talks.
• While Europe works to develop a cohesive plan for supporting Kyiv, and strengthening its hand in any future peace negotiations, the Hungarian leader's alignment with Moscow at the negotiating table remains a significant obstacle.

Rival's Approach

Péter Magyar has avoided pledging a significant change on Ukraine, and focused his campaigning on domestic issues, while highlighting the need for Hungary to start acting as a positive member state. After years of persistent provocations, the European Union can only wait and hope. Mr Orbán’s indifference to basic EU values, including the support for minority protections and the independence of civil society institutions, has remained a deeply troubling issue for the EU. His continued obstructionism on Ukrainian matters risks undermining its security prospects.